This is a tough spot but also an amazing problem to have. Two saver First seats already upgraded to the Residence is huge. AUH to SIN is one of those routes where Etihad sometimes releases a third saver, but it is very unpredictable. I would not count on it opening, especially once two are already gone.
If this really is a once in a lifetime trip with your parents, I would lean toward locking something in now rather than playing chicken with availability. Option 2 feels like the safest middle ground. Fully refundable Deluxe fare, set alerts everywhere, and hope a saver opens. If it does, great. If not, at least you are guaranteed to be on the flight with them.
Waiting until February feels risky. First cash prices can jump fast and there is nothing worse than watching prices spike while saver space never appears. Burning Capital One miles through the portal is not ideal value wise, but memories sometimes matter more than CPP.
Personally, I would secure the refundable seat now and sleep better.
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