I was reviewing data from the T-100 tool and noticed something unusual on the Seattle (SEA) to Philadelphia (PHL) route.
Historically, Alaska Airlines tends to slightly outperform American Airlines in load factors on this route, usually by a small margin of about 1 to 3 percent. However, for early 2026, the gap appears much larger. American Airlines flights are showing around 40 percent empty seats, which is a significant change compared to previous patterns.
Given that this is the winter season, reduced demand is expected, and both carriers currently appear to be operating once daily instead of twice daily, unlike summer schedules where load factors exceed 90 percent. Still, the difference between the two airlines seems unusually wide compared to 2025, where Alaska was around 90 percent and American was closer to 75 percent.
I am curious if anyone knows what might be driving this shift.
I am also interested in how the Portland (PDX) to Philadelphia route will perform once data becomes available. Interestingly, that route uses the flight number AS1776, which feels like a notable choice.
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